Happy early forecast Valentines… love the Pacific

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

I’m not gong to lie… I’m kind of exited about this forecast thanks to a very special something in my life… the Pacific Ocean.  She’s the best girlfriend I’ve ever had; providing me with sanctuary and solice when I need it, and still keeping me on my toes!  Unfortunately she’s not very monotanous… so the rest of you that happen to be in love with her too… I supposed I should share my knowledge of her.

To start things off we have fading SW (200-220) that is showing throughout most of the region, mostly knee-chest high surf but with some bigger shoulder high+ sets mixing in at the best spots.  The more exciting swell though should start picking up today through the weekend.  New 18-19 second S (180-195) should be filling in Friday, building to a peak Saturday and Sunday.  Although pretty steep, stand out breaks in the region are going to be seeing some good deep water swell showing surf around chest to overhead through the region, possibly a couple feet overhead at stand out breaks.  Size should start backing off early next week..

The kicker is going to be what the NPac has been working on for the past week or so.  There have been a series of  low-latitude storms setting up fetch within the ideal WNW swell window for Northern Mainland Mex and parts of Central America. These swells are always a bit spotty, but for those lucky spots that can work with the combo or channel in the long-period swell, there should be a mix of NW that could be pretty fun. Mainland Mex should already start seeing the swell filling in, but Central American breaks will start seeing the building combo late in the weekend and early next week, possibly bringing some waist to head high and possibly overhead+ surf to the region.  Can’t complain there… thank you dearest NPac.

As always for more details on your favorite spots and regions in Central America and Mainland Mexico check out the links below…you can drill down to a specific break and get a custom forecast, targeted weather, tides, and surf conditions dialed in for that particular spot.

Costa Rica | Nicaragua | El Salvador | Southern Mexico

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

The Southern Ocean has been warming up to the idea of starting an early spring time run it looks like, and as a result we’re starting to see more moderate systems developing fetch in our window.

This guy is a result of that little window that this weekend’s original storm opened up early this past week.  Its not looking huge, but it does happen to have a good trajectory and a little size with it.  Based on today’s models we’re looking at a small SSW (190-200) arriving with 16 second periods around the 17th…stand out breaks in the region could be seeing some waist to shoulder high+ surf as the swell peaks next weekend.

There could be a little extra energy added to the mix through the weekend, which would make the swell stick around a little longer…

The Southern Ocean keeps things going with some more action coming around New Zealand early next week.  Its not the most ideal fetch location, but it does get some NE direction and its a good sign for opening up that region for bigger swells.  The little bit of energy that does come out of this system will probably start showing up around the 23rd and 24th, with small to moderate size.

The best part of this series of SW (210-220) swell could be the next storm that follows it up as it moves under French Polynesia.  This puts adds some much needed energy in our swell window, helping to add some extra oomph! and a little more SSW (205-215) into the mix for the last few days of the month.

And finally the window to SW swells has been forced open as high pressure gets pushed a little further north, allowing for some more energy to move around New Zealand in the long-range forecast.  Hopefully some of that materializes for us.  We’ll have to keep an eye on it though in the mean time.  Oh and before I forget, don’t forget that the North Pacific is still pretty active, so there could be some fun combo on the way…

The Next Mainland Mexico and Central America surf forecast will be updated Tuesday Feb 14, 2012.
Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://surf.solspot.com