More WNW-NW swell and clean conditions in the forecast for the weekend.

Surf Forecast Overview

Another series of fun-sized WNW-NW swells and background S-SW energy will combine with good conditions over the next few days…keeping things rideable, and even fun at the better exposed spots. The weather starts to break down a little early next week and we see more NW windswell move in…but still looks like there will be surfable windows.

Short Range Surf Outlook (next 4 days)

Friday – (The 13th…still waiting for the massive dolphin attack…oh you laugh now, but when they take over, and it is anchovy puree for breakfast every morning and they make you jump through flaming hoops…you won’t be laughing anymore.)

Friday looks like a decent surf morning…lower tide, a more even mix of WNW-NW and S-SW energy, and clean conditions. The surf won’t be big, but the combo energy and the conditions will conjure up some playful sounding surf. Might be a good day to bring the fish or the big board so you can pick off a few of the smaller ones…but if you are light enough you should still be able to get away with using your all-round board. The surf at the average spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some waist-chest high peaks showing occasionally at the better combo breaks, on the lower tide (and if you crouch). The top WNW facing spots, and the excellent NW/combo breaks will have some waist-shoulder high surf…with the potential for a rare bigger wave on the tide push…not something you are going to want to hold your breath waiting for. Winds/Weather: Light NE offshore to light/variable winds will be on tap through the first half of the day with a touch of texture filling in through the afternoon likely below 8-12 knots for most areas. Again with high-pressure holding the region hostage there may be a chance at an evening surf if the winds don’t get to frisky in the afternoon.

Saturday – (The WNW-NW swell will be on the rise and the weather stays nice.)

Saturday will be another decent surf day…the WNW-NW swell (285-300) actually gets another boost of mostly NW energy that will be filling in throughout the day, mixing with the work-week leftovers and the S-SW swells (180-210) that hang weakly in the background. Look for the average spots to be in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high+ waves hitting the better WNW facing breaks by the afternoon (as the new swell fills in touch more). The standout NW facing breaks, again in the Ventura, South Bay, and South SD standout areas, will have chest-head high surf with some sets going overhead on the better parts of the tide swing. Winds/Weather: The NE winds are forecast to stick around through Saturday and keep things clean in the morning…it may not be super-crazy sunny at the beach thanks to a cold front that is feeding us clouds from off the coast, but the surface should be clean throughout Socal. Look for mild onshore winds through the afternoon and then a slight chance for an evening session if the high-pressure can hold in place.

Sunday – (The WNW-NW swell starts to drift off in the morning but more little pulses of Southern Hemi swell sneak in.)

Sunday will be another surf day, but as we lose some energy from the WNW-NW swell (285-300) we can expect sizes to drop and even the background S-SW swells (180-220) won’t do a lot to slow down the dropping size. Look for the average NW spots and combo breaks to be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW breaks will be closer to waist-shoulder high on most of the sets…with a chance for a few bigger waves to sneak through the SD standout combo spots on the morning low tides. Winds/Weather: High pressure holds the winds out of the NE with speeds looking mild…mostly 0-5 knots. Expect light onshore flow around midday and more NW winds, probably stronger than we have seen in a while 10-15 knots settle in through the afternoon as the upper-level low-pressure finally starts to push over the West Coast.

Monday – (the surf size comes up a little as local windswell builds and our nice weather starts to blow away).

Monday will be rideable…at least through the morning, but stronger onshore winds and a semi-honked up weather pattern may keep things from being as good as the might have been. Swellwise we get a new shot of W-NW windswell (280-300), leftover WNW-NW swell (290-300 in the 12-14 second period range), and more Southern Hemi background energy. Average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout NW windswell breaks, excellent combo spots, and just really exposed winter spots will have some shoulder-head high sets in mix but the shape is going to definitely change with more of the energy coming through as 5-7 second windswell. Winds/Weather: Look for the more traditional light/variable to lightly textured morning winds, with the cleanest surf showing at the more wind protected spots. The winds increase out of the NW as we move through the day, topping out around 12-15 knots for the more exposed spots in the late afternoon.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Still seeing a lot of disorganization in the NPAC…there are a couple of smaller fetches aimed our direction but the majority of the storm activity is taking place in the NW Pacific…which has several smaller storms combining in a jumbled up mess.

Even though this weird looking blob is what we have on the charts now…I can’t escape the feeling that this is sort of like having a really big guy winding up to throw a punch, you know the kind that don’t seem to come that fast, but when they hit, watch the hell out.

Anyway…that punch isn’t in the forecast charts just yet…but I have a feeling that this disorganization in the WPAC may tighten up and line up some fetch for Socal as it pushes closer to Hawaii.

As you can see the energy in the WPAC does migrate eastward and hits the high-pressure ridge, that has been keeping the West Coast on the dry side, pretty hard…showing a lot more activity closer to our coast and even some in the lower latitudes. While it is way too early to nail down any swell from this mess, I think we can count on a series of playful moderate NW pulses, filtering through the first part of next week and then the potential for some stronger surf as we head into the weekend of Jan 20-21. A lot has to happen between now and then…so check back in on Monday and hopefully things will be sorted out a bit more.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Not much to change in the SPAC…just a series of small reinforcements from both the S-SW as we move throughout the week.

The other storm we have been watching continues to follow the path that it had forecast to follow last week…which has it moving very zonally through the SPAC under New Zealand and then, right as it hits a more open part of the swell window, driving NE toward Central America, and to a lesser degree, Socal. It isn’t a big storm, but if it moves the way the forecasts are calling it to…it may get a little boost by traveling over the sea-state it creates while it moves, adding more energy before the windy part of the system breaks off to go harass Chile. It shares a lot of characteristics with the storm that sent our S-SW swell for earlier this week, not big, not that consistent, but rideable if you find the right break. I would look for waist-chest high SSW swell hitting around Jan 17-18.

Not much on tap in the SPAC after that, but it is an active ocean near Australia…and the long-range charts are showing some storms starting to come to life as the systems clear New Zealand. I don’t think we will see much more than shadowed background energy from those storms, but it may be enough to cross things up at the top combo spots as we head into late January/early February.

The next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, Jan 16, 2012.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://surf.solspot.com/