Windswell and background Southern Hemi forecast for the work week…chance for some stormy weather and lumpy swell lining up for the weekend.

Surf Forecast Overview

The crappy weather scoots out of Socal Monday night leaving Tues-Wednesday with cleaner conditions and a rideable but smaller leftover swell mix. Forecast charts have more storms arriving as we head into next weekend with building NW swell coming along with them. The question will be…can the swell get out ahead of these incoming fronts and give us a surf window before the sloppy weather arrives.

Short Range Surf Outlook (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (Cleaner morning winds on tap along with backing down leftover NW energy and weak S-SW swell.)

Tuesday will be rideable but it looks like you are going to want to stick with the small wave gear. It won’t be flat but the NW swell (290-300) will continue to fade out, being replaced by weaker local windswell, and the background S-SW swells stay on the smallish side. Average spots will be in the knee-waist high range, with the potential for a rare bigger wave if the spot likes the short-period NW windswell. The standout NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be in the waist-chest high range, again with very rare bigger sets sneaking through on the better parts of the tide swing. Winds/Weather: High-pressure is forecast to settle in tonight and drive off a lot of the cloud cover, which will make it fairly chilly and set up lighter winds for Tuesday morning. While a couple of the models are calling for some NE flow I think the majority of Socal will have light/variable winds with just a touch of offshore flow early, around sunup. A few of the passes and canyons may be a bit more offshore (particularly around Ventura and LA). Afternoon winds come onshore around 10-12 knots, but if the high-pressure stays in place, may lighten up near sundown.

Wednesday – (The winds stay light but the surf shrinks a little more.)

Wednesday, while there is some NW windswell energy moving down the coast most of it will not be able to make it around the Point Conception corner, which leaves us with mostly leftovers from both the NW (290-300) and the S-SW (180-220). The weaker swell mix means smaller surf across the region with knee high waves showing at most of the average exposed spots and just some waist to very occasionally chest high sets at the standouts. Again the morning looks the cleanest, but it will be chilly and even the best exposed breaks will have you waiting around for sets. Winds/Weather: More light/variable to light offshore flow on tap for the first part of the day. Onshore texture picks up around midmorning and tops out in the 10-13 knot range for the afternoon. With the instability in the weather starting to approach the coast, the odds of an afternoon cleanup aren’t great, but it will still be worth keeping an eye on things if you live near a spot that has some wind protection.

Thursday – (A cold front approaches but we may get some new W-NW swell arriving before the weather does.)

Thursday is starting to look more surfable on the forecast charts than it did a couple of days ago. There is a cold front that will be arriving along the West Coast as we move through the day but the current charts have it hitting Northern/Central California by the afternoon and Socal more on Friday. Swellwise, if this system does stick to the current path we would see an increase in W-WNW-NW energy (275-300) coming in as short-period windswell and that short-medium period (8-10 second) storm swell. Most of energy will be above the 300-degree cutoff, but there should be enough to help increase wave heights at the better exposed spots. Look for the average NW facing breaks to build back into the knee-waist high range with some chest high sets becoming more frequent by the afternoon. Standout NW facing spots will have some waist-shoulder high surf filling in, with the potential for some more size, and more onshore wind, later in the day. Winds/Weather: Winds still look ok for the morning…mostly light/variable with some pockets of light texture here and there. NW winds 10-14 knots will likely be on tap before sundown, but if the storm front somehow jumps ahead we may have winds shifting more to the S-SW as it approaches.

Friday – (Stormy weather and surf moving on in.)

Friday is still deciding if it wants to be semi-surfable or not…I think it is consulting the magic 8-ball or something. At this point it is showing a definite increase in W-WNW storm/windswell with periods in the 6-10 second range with some background NW/SW energy showing a little longer-period pulse underneath the short stuff. The morning winds don’t look great but they don’t look horrible either…basically it will come down to where the storm front is located…if it sticks to the Central Coast we may actually kick off the day with light winds and increasing swell…of course if it veers southward it steamrolls us and brings onshore SW winds, rain, and sloppy surf. Sizewise, despite the conditions, I am expecting the WNW facing breaks to average in the waist-shoulder high range with bigger, more consistent surf at spots that like the short-period swells. The standout NW facing spots will potentially get up into the chest-head high range with maybe even a few rare larger sets at the top spots in Ventura and South SD, before sundown…of course the winds and weather will likely be on it by then.
Winds/Weather: The morning doesn’t look horrible according to today’s forecast, but I expect that to waffle back and forth as we move throughout the week. The one thing I have noticed after years of doing this forecasting stuff is that the weather models, while trying to be accurate, will err on the side of caution, giving you a worse looking weather/rain forecast, particularly in the long-range, which makes sense because they are trying to protect people not score surf…so I am usually pretty skeptical of rain/wind forecasts out past 72 hours…and fully expect that they shift the front’s arrival time back as we get closer. Of course Mother Nature also likes to screw with people…so don’t let your guard down too much or that is when she lands the uppercut. Anyway just something to keep in mind as we move throughout the week. Right now If things stick to the current charts we may see another light/variable to slightly onshore morning session but with increasing SE-SW winds on tap as well as rain moving in throughout the day…with the peak of the storm hitting more over the weekend.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Like I mentioned last week…the NPAC is still sort of in a state of disarray…the storm systems are disorganized, not all that intense, but are making this slow slide across the mid-latitudes toward the US West Coast.

While none of these storms have any halfway decent swell-making potential, they do sort of pile-on energy in that channel that is now open across the 40N latitude line (and below, which is good for us). This may be one of those times where duration and movement really work to offset the lack of intensity in these storms, which is why I think we may get a little more playful sized surf on tap by Thursday and Friday…slightly ahead of the incoming weather.

By the weekend the surf will be up but we are also forecast to get nailed by a couple of moisture laden cold fronts brining rain, wind, and crappy conditions to most areas on Saturday, likely holding into Sunday as well. Good news for guys who have been praying for snow, but sort of craptacular for those of us that want another round of big NW swell and sunny offshore conditions. Anyways these fronts have the potential to put overhead waves into the NW exposed spots, but will probably trash out the conditions at the same time.

Looking at the really long-range charts, it looks like the mid-latitude storm track stays open and the pattern of close-proximity storms (and crappy weather) will continue into early next week.

The very, very last chart in this afternoon’s run is showing something interesting…basically a bigger storm forming just off the California Coast next Tuesday. While it is long odds this will be the case, a storm with more intensity would have a better shot at sending out fast moving long-period swell that potentially could arrive before the weather…so keep an eye on Thursday-Friday (Jan 26-27)…might be a shot at some larger W-NW energy hitting around then.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Not much to change in the SPAC…just a series of slightly bigger pulses from both the S-SW as we move throughout the next couple of days.

So we were watching this storm last week which has put swell in the water that arrives Tuesday/Wednesday. Nothing to get fired up about, but I would look for waist-chest high SSW swell hitting around Jan 17-18.

There isn’t much on tap after that storm, but a general boost in swell heights seem to linger around that New Zealand/Antarctica gap and move on a semi-decent track for Socal, Mexico, and Central America. I wouldn’t count on much of swell from this activity, but it shows that the SPAC isn’t totally shut down either…so maybe this is a precursor to another good spring SPAC swell season, we will have to wait and see.

The next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, January 19, 2012.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://surf.solspot.com/